Iowa Caucus Results
So, the Iowa Caucus happened. Obama and Huckabee take an early lead for the race to the Oval in '08.
First of all, I'm happy for Obama's success. I hope he gets more success. He's certainly a viable candidate now. Hillary's in more trouble than Giuliani. Giuliani's numbers in Iowa are surprisingly low but, then again, he wasn't campaigning there either. What that means is that the Iowa result's spin-able. Clinton, on the other hand, doesn't have the same excuse. However, she is very much in the race. Unfortunately for her, she's going to look like a weak bet because she was the presumptive favorite going in.
So, if Obama keeps his momentum we're looking at an interesting time in New Hampshire. He's showing real legs and on-the-fence Democrats are going to be jumping on his bandwagon. This is, however, when Clinton's going to be pulling out the big guns. New Hampshire's going to be a high-ground/dirty fight. Obama's the heart but the mind's still on Clinton. Edwards, on the other hand, is in an interesting place. Yes, he showed second in Iowa but he's not polling as well in New Hampshire. His campaign, thus far, has been built on the presumption that Clinton was the favorite. Iowa's shown otherwise (perception-wise). So, if Edwards has been building his public image as "I'm not Hillary," then he's got... pretty much bupkis. Obama's got a stronger appeal factor and Hillary's got a bigger bulldog-aggression image. Edwards is the face of the middle ground and I think with Obama's win, Dems are no longer looking for middle ground compromise.
But, Edwards isn't gone yet. The way I see it, if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he's going to need a strong vanilla VP candidate. I'm thinking Edwards. Yes, he's got the stain of '04 on him but we're talking veep. People will either choose or not choose because of the top of the ticket, not the next name down. Edwards gives the subconscious assurance that the next in succession is a white Protestant male. Obama as presidential nominee will be a choice of heart and the ticket will be a fantasy card. Hillary can't cut the mustard in the situation because she already leaves a bad taste in the mouths of moderate Dems. They find her untrustworthy and her name value's sullied. Hardcore Dems want her bad but they'll vote anybody who's got a (D) next to their name so there's no need to court them. Record Iowa Dem numbers show that.
On the other hand, if Hillary pulls the upset in New Hampshire and then again in the primary then she's going to need someone sweeter on the veep ticket and I think Obama's that sugar. It's a subtle reassurance that there's heart and soul in the vapidness of her nomination (at least that's how it'll look to moderates). Unfortunately, we're looking at not one but two minority characteristics to overcome and that's not a price paid lightly. America's probably not read to put both a Black man and a white Woman in the White House... not yet.
On the other side of the ticket, we've got Mike Huckabee. His big appeal is that he's the Republican that Democrats will vote for. Like a younger John McCain. Obviously he's missing some of McCain's... liberalism but he's got the "nice guy" quality that's so rare to see this late in the game. He's the Obama of the GOP. I'm not going to go into depth on that side of the fence (because I don't care as much) but it'll probably be some sort of variation on the Huckabee/Romney or Romney/Huckabee ticket with a sprinkle of Giuliani if he makes a strong showing in NH.
So, how are the face-offs? Here are my opinions:
Hillary/Obama vs. Huckabee/Romney - That one goes to Huckabee. White Midwest America who don't want a black man or white woman in the Oval will happily vote Huckabee. He's got the "right" opinions on gun control (against), abortion (against), and gay marriage (against) that will appeal to that audience. The same people who voted in Bush will vote in Huckabee. Hillary, on the other hand, will scare away moderates.
Obama/Edwards vs. Huckabee/Romney - This one will be a close fight. If it goes the distance, Huckabee will probably eke out a slight victory. This will also be the cleanest fight with no blatantly negative attack ads or vicious behind the back attacks. This is a "nice guy" versus "nice guy" fight. The brutality and teeth will probably show in the VP vs. VP debate and I think Edwards is hungrier and better trained than Romney for that one. Both Obama and Huckabee also have a good sensibility about courting the popular vote through pop culture (late night shows, websites, MTV votes, etc.) without seeming disingenuous (a problem with Hillary and Rudy).
Edwards/Obama vs. Huckabee/Romney - This one will probably be Huckabee's victory. He's got better presence than Edwards and he's got a bigger fan base than Edwards. He seems more knowledgeable and "folksy"-er than Edwards and will be better at courting the press than Edwards. This will probably also lead to much regret on the Democratic end and will probably result in Obama running again in 2012.
Obama/Edwards vs. Romney/Huckabee - This one will be a vicious battle. Romney's hope is to get himself to be seen as the second coming of JFK (I know he's a Dem and Romney's a Rep but go with me on this one). He'll have to make religion a non-issue and focus on Obama being black. If they can stay on target, they'll make a strong showing. This election is won or loss on which candidate can make themselves seem more "presidential" faster. Obama's focus will probably be trumped by Romney's focus but if Obama can court Midwest blacks, he's got this one won. I'm going to say that with the Oprah power behind them, Obama and Edwards win this one.
Clinton/Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee - This one will probably be a Clinton victory. I'm just going to say that because I believe they'll both be playing dirty but Clinton's better at the game than Romney and she's got Bill in her corner... nobody's better at playing dirty than Bill (except for Karl Rove but if Romney's the nominee, I'm going to put Rove in the non-factor column until proven otherwise. It's just a gut feeling).
Obama/Edwards vs. Giuliani/Huckabee - This one's tough. A Giuliani/Huckabee ticket seems to be the perfect Republican ticket (assuming Giuliani has any sort of strong showing in NH) because they balance each other rather perfectly. Obama/Edwards has the perception of being a bad fit, although they'd look better in the press as two younger and happier men. Giuliani's strength in this one, however, is latent 9/11 memories. If this unlikely battle appears after the primaries, expect the Republicans to use "National Security" and "Ending the War on Terror" as their big guns. I'd still give the edge to Obama, however. He'd probably win this one... barely.
Clinton/Obama vs. Giuliani/Huckabee - This one's also tough. If Giuliani's as strong as possible going into this battle, we're looking at a dirty dirty fight. This one will probably be the one where the skeletons in the closet come out to play. Expect huge fireworks during the presidential debates. Lots of finger pointing and blame being thrown back and forth. This one's won or loss on Iraq and the way the political winds are blowing right now, they're not favoring Rudy. I'm giving this one to Hillary.
Well, that was fun. It's like trying to pick Oscars. In the end, and my final thoughts on the matter right now, I'm happy for Barack Obama. Like many Dems, my heart's rooting for him. However, I don't think America's ready for a Black man as president and if he's going up against Huckabee after NH, he probably won't win. It's a shame but these are the times we live in. If Edwards gets the Oval because we're too scared to run a Black man or white Woman, I'll be disappointed but I'll live. If that happens, however, I'm also prepared to look at John Edwards as probably the most ineffectual president since Carter because Dems will forever see him as the "guy we settled for because the guy we wanted wasn't a possibility." His presidency will be a one-term one (unless they step up their game and give us something to root for).
UPDATE:
I just re-read my post and realized that in every scenario where Huckabee is the nominee, I gave him the victory. I guess I like Huckabee more than I thought. Oh well, it's a good thing Republicans are already starting to cut him down.
First of all, I'm happy for Obama's success. I hope he gets more success. He's certainly a viable candidate now. Hillary's in more trouble than Giuliani. Giuliani's numbers in Iowa are surprisingly low but, then again, he wasn't campaigning there either. What that means is that the Iowa result's spin-able. Clinton, on the other hand, doesn't have the same excuse. However, she is very much in the race. Unfortunately for her, she's going to look like a weak bet because she was the presumptive favorite going in.
So, if Obama keeps his momentum we're looking at an interesting time in New Hampshire. He's showing real legs and on-the-fence Democrats are going to be jumping on his bandwagon. This is, however, when Clinton's going to be pulling out the big guns. New Hampshire's going to be a high-ground/dirty fight. Obama's the heart but the mind's still on Clinton. Edwards, on the other hand, is in an interesting place. Yes, he showed second in Iowa but he's not polling as well in New Hampshire. His campaign, thus far, has been built on the presumption that Clinton was the favorite. Iowa's shown otherwise (perception-wise). So, if Edwards has been building his public image as "I'm not Hillary," then he's got... pretty much bupkis. Obama's got a stronger appeal factor and Hillary's got a bigger bulldog-aggression image. Edwards is the face of the middle ground and I think with Obama's win, Dems are no longer looking for middle ground compromise.
But, Edwards isn't gone yet. The way I see it, if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he's going to need a strong vanilla VP candidate. I'm thinking Edwards. Yes, he's got the stain of '04 on him but we're talking veep. People will either choose or not choose because of the top of the ticket, not the next name down. Edwards gives the subconscious assurance that the next in succession is a white Protestant male. Obama as presidential nominee will be a choice of heart and the ticket will be a fantasy card. Hillary can't cut the mustard in the situation because she already leaves a bad taste in the mouths of moderate Dems. They find her untrustworthy and her name value's sullied. Hardcore Dems want her bad but they'll vote anybody who's got a (D) next to their name so there's no need to court them. Record Iowa Dem numbers show that.
On the other hand, if Hillary pulls the upset in New Hampshire and then again in the primary then she's going to need someone sweeter on the veep ticket and I think Obama's that sugar. It's a subtle reassurance that there's heart and soul in the vapidness of her nomination (at least that's how it'll look to moderates). Unfortunately, we're looking at not one but two minority characteristics to overcome and that's not a price paid lightly. America's probably not read to put both a Black man and a white Woman in the White House... not yet.
On the other side of the ticket, we've got Mike Huckabee. His big appeal is that he's the Republican that Democrats will vote for. Like a younger John McCain. Obviously he's missing some of McCain's... liberalism but he's got the "nice guy" quality that's so rare to see this late in the game. He's the Obama of the GOP. I'm not going to go into depth on that side of the fence (because I don't care as much) but it'll probably be some sort of variation on the Huckabee/Romney or Romney/Huckabee ticket with a sprinkle of Giuliani if he makes a strong showing in NH.
So, how are the face-offs? Here are my opinions:
Hillary/Obama vs. Huckabee/Romney - That one goes to Huckabee. White Midwest America who don't want a black man or white woman in the Oval will happily vote Huckabee. He's got the "right" opinions on gun control (against), abortion (against), and gay marriage (against) that will appeal to that audience. The same people who voted in Bush will vote in Huckabee. Hillary, on the other hand, will scare away moderates.
Obama/Edwards vs. Huckabee/Romney - This one will be a close fight. If it goes the distance, Huckabee will probably eke out a slight victory. This will also be the cleanest fight with no blatantly negative attack ads or vicious behind the back attacks. This is a "nice guy" versus "nice guy" fight. The brutality and teeth will probably show in the VP vs. VP debate and I think Edwards is hungrier and better trained than Romney for that one. Both Obama and Huckabee also have a good sensibility about courting the popular vote through pop culture (late night shows, websites, MTV votes, etc.) without seeming disingenuous (a problem with Hillary and Rudy).
Edwards/Obama vs. Huckabee/Romney - This one will probably be Huckabee's victory. He's got better presence than Edwards and he's got a bigger fan base than Edwards. He seems more knowledgeable and "folksy"-er than Edwards and will be better at courting the press than Edwards. This will probably also lead to much regret on the Democratic end and will probably result in Obama running again in 2012.
Obama/Edwards vs. Romney/Huckabee - This one will be a vicious battle. Romney's hope is to get himself to be seen as the second coming of JFK (I know he's a Dem and Romney's a Rep but go with me on this one). He'll have to make religion a non-issue and focus on Obama being black. If they can stay on target, they'll make a strong showing. This election is won or loss on which candidate can make themselves seem more "presidential" faster. Obama's focus will probably be trumped by Romney's focus but if Obama can court Midwest blacks, he's got this one won. I'm going to say that with the Oprah power behind them, Obama and Edwards win this one.
Clinton/Obama vs. Romney/Huckabee - This one will probably be a Clinton victory. I'm just going to say that because I believe they'll both be playing dirty but Clinton's better at the game than Romney and she's got Bill in her corner... nobody's better at playing dirty than Bill (except for Karl Rove but if Romney's the nominee, I'm going to put Rove in the non-factor column until proven otherwise. It's just a gut feeling).
Obama/Edwards vs. Giuliani/Huckabee - This one's tough. A Giuliani/Huckabee ticket seems to be the perfect Republican ticket (assuming Giuliani has any sort of strong showing in NH) because they balance each other rather perfectly. Obama/Edwards has the perception of being a bad fit, although they'd look better in the press as two younger and happier men. Giuliani's strength in this one, however, is latent 9/11 memories. If this unlikely battle appears after the primaries, expect the Republicans to use "National Security" and "Ending the War on Terror" as their big guns. I'd still give the edge to Obama, however. He'd probably win this one... barely.
Clinton/Obama vs. Giuliani/Huckabee - This one's also tough. If Giuliani's as strong as possible going into this battle, we're looking at a dirty dirty fight. This one will probably be the one where the skeletons in the closet come out to play. Expect huge fireworks during the presidential debates. Lots of finger pointing and blame being thrown back and forth. This one's won or loss on Iraq and the way the political winds are blowing right now, they're not favoring Rudy. I'm giving this one to Hillary.
Well, that was fun. It's like trying to pick Oscars. In the end, and my final thoughts on the matter right now, I'm happy for Barack Obama. Like many Dems, my heart's rooting for him. However, I don't think America's ready for a Black man as president and if he's going up against Huckabee after NH, he probably won't win. It's a shame but these are the times we live in. If Edwards gets the Oval because we're too scared to run a Black man or white Woman, I'll be disappointed but I'll live. If that happens, however, I'm also prepared to look at John Edwards as probably the most ineffectual president since Carter because Dems will forever see him as the "guy we settled for because the guy we wanted wasn't a possibility." His presidency will be a one-term one (unless they step up their game and give us something to root for).
UPDATE:
I just re-read my post and realized that in every scenario where Huckabee is the nominee, I gave him the victory. I guess I like Huckabee more than I thought. Oh well, it's a good thing Republicans are already starting to cut him down.
posted by Chris "Krang" Yang | 1:40 AM
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